![\"\"](\"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/18-DEC-UK-Budget.png\")
In addition, the recent Autumn Budget has, to some extent, cleared the way for monetary easing. Specific measures\u2014such as cuts to energy bills and a freeze in train fares\u2014are expected to shave a few tenths of a percentage point off headline inflation next year. More importantly, the timing and distribution of fiscal measures imply a modest \u201cmicro-stimulus\u201d in 2026, with the bulk of fiscal support shifted further out along the policy horizon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n GBP\/USD displays a daily-chart configuration broadly similar to that of EUR\/USD, albeit noticeably weaker. The early-July high at 1.3785 and the September peak at 1.3726 remain distant despite the rally of the past three weeks (current price 1.3368), in contrast to the behaviour of the euro against the US dollar. This relative weakness is evident in the downward-sloping, well-defined price channel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The 1.2990 area, from which the latest upside acceleration originated, represents a key support\/resistance zone. It was particularly important in early 2022, when\u2014once breached\u2014it marked the beginning of the sharp decline in the pair, first toward the 1.20 area and ultimately to 1.0325 by year-end. The slope of the rally that began on 20 November from 1.3035 appears somewhat steep, and just yesterday there was an initial attempt to break below the rising trendline. Momentum indicators remain supportive, with both MACD and RSI in positive territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite the prospect of a rate cut\u2014or perhaps precisely because it is already largely priced in\u2014from a technical standpoint GBP\/USD could extend modestly higher, potentially testing the 1.35 area, where it would encounter the descending channel. Any sustained breakout (not expected today, and for which there is currently insufficient evidence to assess the probability) would nonetheless require confirmation above 1.36.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On the downside, areas of particular interest lie at 1.325 and 1.313. A final observation on the longer-term outlook: on the upside, the truly critical zone is between 1.40 and 1.425. GBP\/USD traded above this range from 2008 to 2015, and it represents the upper boundary of the broad range within which the pair has moved over the past decade, with the lower bound located around 1.2075.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Approximately one hour before the ECB announces its decision from Frankfurt, the \u201cOld Lady\u201d\u2014the affectionate nickname for the Bank of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":104002,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[2932],"tags":[1044,1042,1099],"class_list":["post-107228","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical","tag-boe","tag-gbpusd","tag-uk"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/18-DEC-GBPUSD.png\")