{"id":103402,"date":"2025-09-30T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-30T06:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/?p=42545"},"modified":"2026-05-07T09:05:26","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T07:05:26","slug":"outlook-for-the-week-of-september-29-october-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/ar\/outlook-for-the-week-of-september-29-october-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Outlook | 29 Sep\u20133 Oct"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The week of September 29 \u2013 October 3 will keep global markets on edge as investors balance the risk of a potential U.S. government shutdown with high-impact economic releases. In the U.S., focus will fall on ISM\/PMI data midweek and Friday\u2019s nonfarm payrolls (NFP), both critical for shaping Fed expectations. In Asia, Japan\u2019s policy debates and China\u2019s factory activity will drive yen moves and broader EM sentiment, while developments from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Australian data will test local central bank outlooks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Points to Watch<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Risk of a U.S. government shutdown could delay data, distort sentiment, and add to dollar volatility.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>U.S. payrolls (NFP) on Friday, Oct 3, is the main event; job figures will guide near-term Fed expectations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ISM \/ S&amp;P Global Manufacturing PMI early October provides a gauge of U.S. industrial health.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>BoJ dissent signals hawkish shift, leaving the yen sensitive ahead of Japan\u2019s Oct 4 LDP leadership election.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Post-Fed Environment<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets enter the week still digesting the Fed\u2019s September rate cut and forward guidance. While the central bank framed the move as risk management, expectations remain divided on further easing. Money markets now price an 86% chance of another 25 bps cut in October. The added risk of a U.S. government shutdown further clouds the outlook, with potential delays in data releases, reduced liquidity, and higher risk premia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>U.S. Data Drives the Week<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The key release is Friday\u2019s NFP report. A strong print would challenge dovish expectations, pushing the dollar and yields higher. Conversely, weak job growth would reinforce hopes for additional Fed cuts. Earlier in the week, ISM\/PMI data (Oct 1) will provide insights into factory activity and price pressures. Softer results could raise concerns over slowing U.S. growth momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>China\u2019s Factory Activity and U.S. Trade Tensions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>China\u2019s manufacturing sector remains under pressure. A Reuters poll points to September PMI edging up to 49.6, still below the 50 threshold. Persistent weakness, coupled with intensifying U.S.\u2013China trade tensions, weighs on EM sentiment. Any policy missteps or escalation risks could amplify volatility across regional markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Japan: BoJ Dissent and Political Risk<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Two dissenting votes at the BoJ have fueled speculation that a rate hike is back on the table, heightening sensitivity to the Tankan survey and upcoming speeches. Political uncertainty adds to the backdrop, as the LDP prepares to elect a new leader on October 4. Intraday volatility in USD\/JPY may increase as candidates position ahead of the vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>SNB Policy Outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The SNB, having left rates at 0%, is expected to maintain a cautious stance. President Schlegel has reiterated that negative rates remain an option should inflation stay subdued. Markets will test the SNB\u2019s dovish signals, with USD\/CHF vulnerable to further downside pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Australia: Early Indicators Ahead of CPI<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Although full Q3 CPI data arrives later in the month, PMI and high-frequency indicators due this week will provide early signals for the RBA outlook. A stronger-than-expected print could ease rate-cut expectations, offering short-term support for the AUD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This week combines political risks and pivotal macro data, leaving little room for complacency. The U.S. NFP and ISM\/PMI will likely dominate direction, but policy signals from Asia and Europe may trigger sharp moves in FX and fixed income. Market volatility remains a high probability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For real-time insights and institutional-grade analysis, visit the<a href=\"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/\"> OnEquity Official Website<\/a> and explore verified client feedback on<a href=\"https:\/\/www.trustpilot.com\/review\/onequity.com\"> Trustpilot<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The week of September 29 \u2013 October 3 will keep global markets on edge as investors balance the risk of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":102619,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[2882],"tags":[728],"class_list":["post-103402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-weekly-outlook","tag-weekly-outlook-tag"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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