The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure, trading around 0.6987 during Tuesday’s Asian session, November 3, after reaching a fresh two-week low. The Australian Dollar struggles to regain momentum below the psychological 0.7000 level as investors position themselves ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy announcement. The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.85%, marking its fifth rate increase this year amid persistent inflationary pressures. However, the accompanying policy statement and comments from RBA Governor Michele Bullock will be crucial in determining whether further tightening remains likely or whether the current move could mark the peak of the rate-hiking cycle.
Beyond the expected rate increase, traders will closely examine the RBA’s assessment of inflation and its forward guidance for clues about future monetary policy. A more hawkish message from Governor Bullock could provide support for the Australian Dollar, while cautious remarks suggesting that interest rates may have reached their peak could limit further gains.
Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the US midterm elections could generate additional volatility in currency markets and influence demand for the US Dollar. Traders will also monitor Tuesday’s US economic releases, including Factory Orders and JOLTS Job Openings, for fresh indications of economic strength. Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be another important catalyst, potentially influencing expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision and the direction of the US Dollar.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, AUD/USD maintains a bearish near-term bias around 0.6987, trading below the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance at 0.7025. The RSI stands at 45.19, indicating continued selling pressure, while the positive MACD histogram suggests early signs of improving momentum. However, both MACD lines remain below zero, leaving a bullish reversal unconfirmed.
On the downside, immediate support is located at 0.6975, followed by stronger support at 0.6894 if the pair breaks below this level and the ascending trendline. On the upside, initial resistance stands at 0.7025, followed by 0.7066 and the 0.7107–0.7120 zone. A sustained break above 0.7066 could improve the short-term outlook, while a move beyond 0.7120 would strengthen bullish recovery prospects.
The RBA’s interest rate decision remains the key catalyst, with its forward guidance likely to determine the Australian Dollar’s next direction. A hawkish stance could support a rebound toward 0.7025 and 0.7066, while less aggressive guidance may accelerate losses toward 0.6975 and 0.6894. Traders should monitor these technical levels alongside central bank signals and US economic data to identify potential trading opportunities and manage event-driven volatility.
